Horseless Carriages and Generative AI
Generative AI isn’t a disruption yet
In the late 19th century, the first automobiles started to appear. I wonder: did people back then see them as just hype, something whose benefits were exaggerated? Could they already grasp the true impact? Definitely not all of them. Those first automobiles weren’t much faster than carriages and had the same shape, wheels, etc. In fact, they were called “horseless carriages.” I’m sure horse sellers at the time emphasized the dangers of these new machines and cast doubt on their reliability.
Then came Carl Benz and his patented Benz Patent-Motorwagen. This marked the arrival of a new technology that brought momentum to what we now call the car. It wasn’t just an evolution; it was a clear break from the past. The horse was effectively “discontinued.”
In much the same way, we are now witnessing the early days of generative AI. Just as the car redefined transportation, generative AI is beginning to reshape how we think about information technology. Today, generative AI feels a lot like those horseless carriages. It’s not just a disruption, where we see a familiar trend suddenly speeding up or slowing down. Instead, generative AI marks a clear discontinuity — a break from the current curve.
Like any transformative technology, it needs an ecosystem to thrive. We didn’t park cars in fields and feed them hay; we built gas stations, parking lots — and for some reason, hung fuzzy dice from the rearview mirror. A successful platform shift takes time. Amara’s Law reminds us: “We tend to overestimate the effect of a technology in the short run and underestimate the effect in the long run.” Generative AI is no exception. Many of its early applications may seem exciting but underwhelming.
The ecosystem for this new platform is still being built, and until it’s in place, the truly disruptive innovations remain just out of reach. We’re at the inaugural stages. The first-order effects — like improved infrastructure, tools, and automation — are clear and predictable.
The second-order effects involve adapting technology to address current business bottlenecks, many of which can be solved with AI. In the next section, key concepts are introduced that will help you not only solve these problems but re-solve them from the ground up.
But the real impact lies in those third, fourth, and nth-order effects — the ones we can’t yet foresee. In the case of generative AI, it’s not as simple as predicting parking lots and gas stations.
Re-solve Your Problems
To navigate the next-order effects, we’ll need to rethink how we approach problem-solving. Don’t just add AI onto your existing solutions. Instead, return to the original challenges you’re trying to solve. Redefine those problems from scratch, keeping in mind that generative AI may offer entirely new ways of addressing them. This isn’t about simply solving the same problems with new tools; it’s about re-solving them by questioning your assumptions and leveraging AI where it fits best. AI won’t be necessary in every case, but where it is, it can unlock transformative solutions. Below are key components to consider as you rethink how to solve your business challenges with this powerful technology.
Infinite Requests
With human interaction, there’s a natural limit to how many times you can go back and forth on a task. However, with AI models, you can ask the same question repeatedly: change the tone, omit a paragraph, rephrase, etc. It doesn’t matter what time of day it is — the LLM doesn’t lose its enthusiasm.
Infinite requests also allow you to run workflows over and over again, incorporating the latest events. So by the time the output is used, it’s always up-to-date.
Content Fluidity
Generative AI allows for seamless transformation of content across different formats. Text becomes audio, audio becomes text, or you can switch one voice for another. A document can turn into a presentation, or maybe you’d prefer a summary instead of a long article. Need an image to capture a thousand words? Just provide the description. Information flows freely between formats, adapting to whatever form is most useful to you at any given time.
Hyper-personalisation
Generative AI tailors its output to each individual. It speaks your language and highlights the news you care about. The power of hyper-personalization ensures that the experience feels crafted specifically for you or your audience.
Closing thoughts
Generative AI, like the first car, is still in its early stages — more of a “horseless carriage” than a transformative information technology with its full impact realized. Its potential is yet to be fully unlocked, and while the first-order effects are becoming evident, the deeper, more transformative changes are still on the horizon.
Sources
Why GenAI Is Not Disruption — It’s Discontinuity
AI and Marketing — What happens next
